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nearly 2017 comes the led semiconductor era has ended

Recently, many of the LED Forum, but the future trend of far more, the real discussion LED industry core content of less and less, into the early winter of November, Professor Nakamura repair in the Beijing Forum mentioned three new LED industry trends , Including Micro LED, laser lighting and LiFi, probably because the LED industry is already very mature, and these technologies feel close to us, but in fact very far away, it may be necessary to tell you the future of LED technology and industry trends, Let the LED industry, a friend reference.

As a sober LED veterans, some technical trends and the future direction of the product I see more thoroughly, I remember 2014, attended the Frankfurt Lighting Fair, when everyone is booming intelligent lighting, I judge this is a LED technology topics of speculation, will not in the short term become the mainstream of LED.

The results As I expected, intelligent lighting to the present is still highbrow. “Forum for the new words and strong worry” is the biggest feature of the forum and the media, so the recent forum and the media is very exciting, laser lighting, LiFi and Micro LED LED technology to the infinite hope, but also high-power GaN devices HEMT heat to engage in LED epitaxy and chip technology Another spring, a dream is good, but the reality is cruel,

LED in the end what will the future? This problem does require us to think carefully.
LED lighting industry or the semiconductor industry?

LED in the end is the semiconductor industry or the lighting industry, and now we have a deep confusion, in accordance with my recent observation, this year after, LED has been completely into the lighting industry, and its semiconductor industry is increasingly weak, how to explain it? We can compare the characteristics of the two industries, we first introduced the two industries, respectively!

The characteristics of the semiconductor industry

We know that ICs have Moore’s Law, which predicts the number of integrated circuits on an integrated circuit chip doubling every 18 months, doubling the performance of the microprocessor every 18 months, or halving the price. As shown in Figure 2 below:


▲ Figure 1: the number of chips per unit area: the microscopic Moore’s Law



▲ Figure 2: Chip efficiency and speed Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law up to now or accurately predict the IC chip technology trends, and integrated circuit related industries spend a large sum of money into research and development, to make the best performance and speed of the fastest processor or memory chip, so we almost every year Will see the latest electronic products replacement, to stimulate the needs of young consumers, which is the biggest characteristic of the semiconductor industry, investment → → → electronic products beyond the saturation of product replacement → investment → technology → →

So almost every two years, our electronic products such as mobile phones will be new, and the new phone will cost 30% higher than the previous generation to 50%, which is the semiconductor industry, he has been accelerating the car, almost reluctant Slow down, because the deceleration means to be eliminated, so it is the capital and talent are indispensable industries, in addition to absorb a lot of money, but also a large number of monopoly talent.

Similarly, in the compound semiconductor LED has a we are not familiar with the Heitz’s law:


▲ Figure III: Heitz’s law

As shown in Figure 3, this law predicts the price of LED will be 10 times per 10 years, the output lumen is increased by 20 times, as shown in Figure 3, from the first commercially visible red light 1962 to the present , The law appears to be perfect and accurate prediction of LED technology and price trends.

Since 1993, Dr. Nakamura invented the first commercial blue LED, LED began to enter the full-color era, but when the LED price is high, brightness is not bright, so the application is limited, after seven years of exploration, the industry slowly shifted to China’s hands, Taiwan is the driving force to promote the first wave of LED push hands.

As shown in Figure 4, from 2000 to 2008, LED into the first golden period, technological progress is the biggest driving force for LED growth, the first wave of laser cutting technology significantly reduces the cost of chips, ITO transparent conductive layer to replace nickel gold transparent The introduction of the electrode technology to improve the brightness of the times, LED into the backlight era.


▲ Figure 4: 2002 to 2015 LED technology and market trends

2008 to 2010, the graphics substrate PSS technology into the large-size backlight began to use a large number of LED to replace the CCFL, LED semiconductor properties to a climax, technical personnel odd goods, mainland China began a new round of crazy investment, LED Taiwan gradually transferred to mainland China, a series of technology by the Taiwanese engineers to the mainland, Taiwan and the mainland by the division of labor relations into a competitive relationship.

2014 to 2016 for the LED high-tech industry by the semiconductor industry into a transition to the transition of the lighting industry for three years, due to Japan and South Korea, China Taiwan enterprises in mainland China because of irrational bargain competition, the results of the LED industry had better The return of their investment in LED technology is almost a drop in the bucket, many companies almost have to sell to give up the tasteless, so since 2014 Cree announced 303 lumens tile technology, Europe and the United States Japan and South Korea China Taiwan enterprises rarely Sound, and relative, China’s enterprises on the more active.

LED chip technology does not increase the contribution of the Heitz’s law, but the cost of the Chinese packaging industry can be said to spend a lot of effort, the localization of silica gel led to the rapid decline in the cost of glue, LED device current density increased by three times Large current drive lamp beads to significantly reduce the cost of alloy wire, palladium copper wire used to reduce the cost and a certain proportion of China’s LED manufacturers in order to reduce costs almost exhausted the power of primitive, and Hais’s Law seems Has come to the limit, almost has lost the semiconductor industry-driven growth of the properties of the technology. It no longer requires a lot of investment, almost do not need so many high-end talent.

Characteristics of the lighting industry

Lighting industry is a very traditional industry, starting from Edison tungsten bulb has been nearly 137 years of history, this industry has a characteristic, the initial technology development is high on the high-tech industry, but with the light bulb product maturity, technology and The proportion of development is getting lower and lower, the industry is more and more mature, need to invest in research and development and engineering verification funds will become increasingly lower, the value of technical staff began to depreciate, marketing and market channels more and more important, the industry in history After several product upgrades, such as the emergence of energy-saving lamps with the recent rise of LED semiconductor lighting has such a process.

The closest we see the era of rapid rise of LED lighting is the era of exclusive market, as shown in Figure 4, 2014, the proportion of technological breakthroughs in LED development gradually reduced, LED disruptive technology breakthrough has been more The less, almost no technology can be the final word to promote a LED application products outbreak.

Like tungsten filament lamps and energy-saving lamps, the initial is a letter on the tall high-tech industry, but less than a few years, it becomes a mature lighting industry, the leading role of technology less and less, and finally The industry is the management, size and access to the Troika parallel industry.

As shown in Figure 4, when the 2014 LED lighting output value is higher than the large-size backlight output, we feel not so strong, to this year’s 2016, LED lighting output value is greater than other LED application output value, LED semiconductor industry property more and more Light, is about to enter 2017, we have not felt the LED semiconductor era has ended, officially entered the lighting industry era?

LED’s frustration and embarrassment: lighting the East unbeaten, but was forced into the corner display

From the above analysis of the semiconductor industry and lighting industry, we should be aware of the LED lighting industry has belonged to, and almost no other LED light turn over the opportunity, the next decade or even three decades, LED must be used by every household light source , As before the tungsten light bulb in the 1970s and the latter part of the twentieth century, like energy-saving lamps, it needs to become a bright human necessities of life, technological progress is not the driving force it forward, because it is already the cheapest, The highest pollution-free light of the.

Now you use the LED bulb is 100 lumens watts, you will because Philips recently out of a 120 lumens tile new products and change lights? LED light source will not be like consumer electronics as long as the replacement of technology there will be replacement tide, and the proportion of technology to reduce costs is also getting smaller and smaller, the status quo will continue for a long time.

In addition to the recent small market demand, the backlight can be described as a bleak, large-size backlight market saturation, coupled with OLED pressing step by step, in the LCD display supply chain LED backlight seems to be in a very awkward position, the recent atmosphere Are mentioning Micro LED, really have the opportunity to make this technology to the over-supply of technical personnel to play the stage? Here is my personal analysis of the future of this technology.

♦ Pale and ineffective LED technician great counterattack! Micro LED

Recent micro-LED was fried hot, this wave of hot is very special, is started by the overseas, and not much ripples in the country, I always think that before the LCD TV out, display technology replacement is more meaningful , Clear picture quality, save a lot of electricity and less to harmful pollutants, with the same lighting, after tungsten, energy-saving lamps to LED, the goal is more energy-efficient and more environmentally friendly, the same is true to the LCD era To a milestone.

But the human race has never been a satisfied with the status quo, and now shows the technology competition is how to meet the harsh vision of human greed more demanding, so pack and play, as shown in Figure 5, the spindle is the LCD + LED backlight and OLED confrontation, Is a quantum dot, laser display and small pitch LED display, LED is always in this war when the supporting role or followers, LCD and OLED confrontation, LED is the LCD backlight, the essence of LCD or OLED confrontation, small pitch LED The display is almost only inside the supporting role of the war it, it is challenging to show the mainstream of the market is almost impossible, it can only be in the outdoor and indoor long-distance viewing of the display market has room to play.


▲ Figure 5 shows the competitive landscape of the industry

Recently fried Micro LED have a chance? This problem is difficult to answer, but the reality is also very cruel, even if Micro LED can replace the display market and how? LED on the whole market impact? I think the answer is LED technology practitioners do not want to hear, I try to talk about Micro LED from the recent advantages of both sides to answer:

Micro LED technology can compete with OLED, leading the future display market

Reply:

In accordance with the advantages of Micro LED technology I see, there is indeed a higher strength with the OLED, but it is only to get back the lost market, OLED instead of LCD + LED backlight, Micro LED then OLED kill, , LED or that LED, but the role of the pixel from the backlight into the active light, technology upgrades, the cost may increase more.

Moreover, the current OLED is still competing with the LCD, their huge investment, the cost will be lower and lower, Micro LED in competition with them will fall on the inherent weakness of a short time it is difficult to create a threat to them, and the technology is very mature Low, at present I see only in the concept stage, want to compete, it is estimated that no five years is difficult to succeed.

Second argument: Micro LED will solve the problem of excess upstream, the next expansion of the upper reaches of the space there

Reply:

OLED to replace the LCD + LED backlight, LED is indeed reduced by the threat of consumption, but because of the rise of the lighting market, this reduction will not have much impact on the LED market, and the current small-screen display market, LED consumption does increase Many, even if the Micro LED to replace the OLED, the LED market can not get any waves, LED usage increased by a few percentage points, to use Micro LED LED chip to solve the problem of excess production capacity, I think it is a fictitious issue, at least the mainland No, perhaps overseas LED manufacturers need, because the LED backlighting demand has shrunk very seriously, there is no new technology to stimulate the display market, they will be more sad, more difficult to survive.

So Micro LED on the mainland is impossible to be taken seriously, this is Taiwan and overseas LED companies in order to compete with the mainland market differentiation of the prospects described, perhaps successful, these overseas LED player differentiation strategy worked, but the The impact of the LED market is limited, the most recent injury is the most recent failure of the Republic of Korea, because the impact of the largest OLED, but the desperately on the LCD 10 on behalf of the plant and 11 plants on behalf of the mainland companies, the impact is not greater ??

The Micro LED future mass production equipment investment is also said that the cost can not go beyond the Korean OLED and mainland LCD players, my view is pessimistic, like “Don Quixote” encounter, I can only use LED technology people pale back to describe the Micro LED on the significance of this industry.

LED also has the opportunity to return to the semiconductor industry?

LED technology has entered the bottleneck of the current period, the technology is expected to flip or CSP technology in 2016 seems to be a small embarrassment into the thunder, especially the CSP, in addition to large-size backlight, lighting in the field does not seem to be any lighting manufacturers Interest, only a special niche market, semiconductor technology line have room to play, flip-chip technology in mobile phone flash, silicon substrate vertical structure technology in automotive lighting and UV LED, CSP technology to the market atrophy of the backlight , Gallium nitride homogeneous substrate technology in the laser? These tall on the technology seems to focus only on specific markets, almost no effect on the general lighting, LED back to the semiconductor era seems slim chance!

Unless the flip-chip technology can be installed relative to the LED cost-effective than 30%, according to the current flip-chip eutectic technology or reflow technology, performance and cost in the device seems difficult to achieve, there is a very difficult way to go, 2018 Year may be a node, but then flip-chip technology is no longer on the technology of the tall.

On the laser diode LD and visible light communication can re-create a new era of semiconductor lighting

Laser lighting is a new light source proposed by Prof. Nakamura Nakamura recently. I think Nakamura is optimistic about the laser, because his own research field is laser, especially blue and green laser diodes, and his own consultants are also promoting laser diodes.


▲ Nakamura Shuji himself as advertising stars endorsement of blue laser diodes

Professor Nakamura has a mission to pursue the limit, so after the completion of the LED task, he felt LED is not perfect, he believes that the laser is the best light source, with many R & D scientists, they only pursue the ultimate and perfect, but ignoring the economy Efficiency, scientists are generally not a good operator or manager, so blindly optimistic about the mass production and no economic considerations, and then said to replace the LED lighting, I think he is optimistic, not pragmatic.

But he also saw the direction, is how to use the power of China to complete his mission, this direction is right, if China can be the price of gallium nitride substrate to complete a revolutionary breakthrough, perhaps laser lighting is a chance, but Absolutely not soon, I estimate that in special lighting, such as automotive and laser displays will have faster breakthroughs, estimated in 2018 or so, there will be a certain percentage of cars and laser displays occupy the market, as the laser to penetrate into general lighting, I To be optimistic at least five years or more, pessimistic estimates will never be replaced.

The key in the Chinese power can help Professor Nakamura hand, the future of all cars can have a laser headlamps, micro-laser projector function can not be universal, Nakamura repair two and China-made cooperation will be the only possibility and opportunity!

The concept of LiFi was first proposed by the University of Edinburgh, Professor Haas, LiFi, also known as visible light communication (VLC), for the LED lighting industry, communications industry, networking industry and other areas of cross-fusion, with broad market application space and strategy Development of high-tech, there are a number of research units are carrying out high response rate GaN-based LED research, many research teams found that single-quantum-well GaN-based LED structure is more likely to obtain high response rate and better temperature characteristics, At 20mA under the conditions of 250Mbit / s optical fiber transmission rate, the current level of LED lighting to meet the application requirements of visible light communication, the speed can reach 150M / s.

Visible optical communication has already touched on the initial application of positioning, but this new concept also belongs to the laboratory stage, the future may be with the efficient conversion of data and multi-channel transmission system and other supporting technologies to address the large-scale data communications era, Higher requirements, LiFi may be able to come to the fore,

As shown in Figure 6, is currently only in the laboratory stage of success, from the technology mature and universal need at least 5 years, maybe two years, “Huawei” began to pay attention to this technology, we can see this technology for the LED industry is There are groundbreaking contributions to the time I may be more concerned about how to make my LED in a single quantum well structure can take into account the brightness of light and faster transmission of visible light.

The next five years of lighting and display pattern

LED lighting is the future of the world unification, which is irreversible, because the LED technology and cost has been to the limit, and almost no light source can compete with the LED, other such as laser, OLED and plasma light source is estimated only in the special lighting market Play.

LED and LED display the challenge, micro LED LED fox just like the back of the tiger, seemingly massive, in fact, not a word of character, not to mention, The so-called fox Tiger is also, now, the market has entered a new era of melee fight, each technology is a generous investment, who can not afford to lose my observation, large-size display the future will be LCD and laser projection Competition, small and medium size is estimated to be LCD, OLED and quantum dot world, Micro LED will be the final reaper? Five years later I may not predict things, so it should not be five years now!

♦ LED technology human role of adjustment and transformation

nearly 2017 comes the led semiconductor era has ended

Over the past decade, LED absorb a lot of talent at home and abroad, the three years, due to LED industry characteristics from the semiconductor industry to the lighting industry, property changes, the outbreak of a wave of talent bubble, LED technical personnel in the past than almost other industries and technical personnel treatment In the rapid technological change of the times, you now have the technology is not necessarily your iron rice bowl, maybe you have financial freedom, so that a lot of high-end manpower, You can start enjoying your future life. If not, I think the way out there are three directions for your reference:

First, if you have a good foreign language skills and high EQ, the development of multi-faceted talent may allow you to continue to travel in this industry, LED lighting industry may not need so many specialized technical personnel, but with the Chinese LED China LED need to have technical and management background of international talent, if you are powerful enough, after a lot of Chinese LED boss will ask you to control the United States, the Netherlands and Germany employees, you want to challenge it?

Second, the human enjoyment of the senses is never stopped, perhaps you are still very brains, that OLED may not be the end of display technology, that in the display Micro LED may have a chance, you can continue to stay in this industry struggle , But you will be very lonely, your boss in order to save the budget, the R & D team may be downsized, very little funding, very few technical team, and perhaps salary has shrunk, and hope that under such conditions, Of course, if you are lucky, rich and powerful in the local tycoons R & D these future technologies, I can only tell you “cherish it.”

Third, the industry into a similar material or technology, if you are less than four years old, there are two areas on the tall you can try, but you have to debug mentality, from the learners began to enter, And the opportunity to become your career the second spring, laser and high-power devices in the next decade or new technology, especially in Shenzhen and Nakamura ready to co-laser technology, Shenzhen will be the semiconductor laser manufacturing center is not impossible. China is now on the semiconductor industry is a crazy like the support, but because China’s imports of semiconductor chips actually higher than the amount of oil, rain-dyed gallium nitride power devices may also have large capital investment and support, as nitriding Gallium LED technology master of your heart yet?

LED technology personnel in the era of the loss of access to the lighting industry is the inevitable result, do not need to commit to, do not need to pessimistic!

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